Roy Morgan Poll mid April 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 April to 19 April 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+0.5%)
• Labour 32.5% (+3.5%)
• Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
• ACT 2.5% (-1.5%)
• Maori 3.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 40
• Green 10
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 68.5% (+2.5%)
• Wrong 17.0% (-5.0%)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)