Roy Morgan Poll late May 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 985 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-3.0%)
• Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
• Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 38
• Green 2
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 67.5% (+1.0%)
• Wrong 19.5% (-0.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%