Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 938 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 2 January to 15 February 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 48.5% (+0.5%)
- Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
- Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
- ACT 2.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 3.5% (nc)
- United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Progressive 1.0% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 2.5% (+1.05%)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 40
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/121 – majority possible
- Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 57/121 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 63.5% (-1.5%)
- Wrong 20.5% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 16.0% (+1.0%)