Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 908 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 16 February to 1 March 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 56.0% (+7.5%)
- Labour 26.0% (-6.0%)
- Green 8.5% (nc)
- ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 3.5% (nc)
- United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Progressive 0.0% (-1.0%)
- NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 32
- Green 11
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 32 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 = 44/122 -18 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 69.0% (+5.5%)
- Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
- Can’t Say 12.5% (-3.5%)