Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,007 total voters, 877 likely voters (3.4% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 14 February to 19 February 2009
Client: One News
Report: TVNZ
Party Support
- National 56.0% (+9.0%)
- Labour 28.0% (-7.0%)
- Green 6.0% (-3.0%)
- ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
- Maori 3.4% (+2.1%)
- United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 1.4% (-1.0%)
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 35
- Green 7
- ACT 4
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 70 = 70/122 – majority possible
- Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 5 = 48/122 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.
Economic Outlook
- 37% economy over next 12 months will be better (-4.0%)
- 21% same (+2.0%)
- 42% worse (+2.0)
- 22% worried they could close their job
- 66% not worried
- 8% do not have a job
- 2% have lost their jobs
- 2% don’t know
- 53% could name Phil Goff as Labour Leader
- 13% could name Annette King as Deputy Leader of Labour