Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 982 (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 19 January to 1 February 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 48.0% (nc)
- Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
- Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (+0.5%)
- Maori 3.5% (nc)
- United Future 1.0% (nc)
- ACT 3.5% (+0.5%)
- Progressive 0.5% (nc)
- Other 0.5% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 39
- Green 11
- NZ First 0
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- ACT 4
- Progressive 1
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 4 = 64/121 – majority possible
- Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 56/122 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 65.0% (-2.0%)
- Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
- Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)