Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,922 (2.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 02 January to 18 January 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 48.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 33.0% (+1.5%)
- Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
- NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
- Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
- United Future 1.0% (nc)
- ACT 3.0% (-1.0%)
- Progressive 0.5% (nc)
- Other 0.5% (-1.0%)
Projected Seats
- National 59
- Labour 41
- Green 10
- NZ First 0
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- ACT 4
- Progressive 1
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/121 – majority possible
- Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 67.0% (+4.0%)
- Wrong 19.0% (-1.0%)
- Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)