Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 908 (3.5% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 16 November to 30 November 2008
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 44.0% (+2.0%)
- Labour 32.5% (-2.0%)
- Green 9.5% (-0.5%)
- NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
- United Future 1.0% (nc)
- ACT 4.0% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
- Other 1.5% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 56
- Labour 42
- Green 12
- NZ First 0
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- ACT 5
- Progressive 1
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 56 + ACT 5 + United Future = 62/122 – majority possible
- Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 60/122 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 66.0% (+14.5%)
- Wrong 19.0% (-16.0%)
- Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.5%)