Polling Company: TNS
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: not known yet
Client: TV3
Party Support
- National 46.0% (+0.0%)
- Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
- Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
- NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
- Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
- United Future 0.2% (nc)
- ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
- Progressive 0.3% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 59
- Labour 42
- Green 12
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 4
- Progressive 1
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/123 – majority possible
- Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4 = 59/123 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 36.4% (+2.8%)
- Clark 34.2% (+0.6%)