Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1038 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 42.0% (-1.0%)
- Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
- Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
- NZ First 4.5% (nc)
- Maori 2.5% (nc)
- United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
- ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
- Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
- Other 1.5% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 54
- Labour 44
- Green 13
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 5
- Progressive 1
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 54 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 + Maori 4 = 64/122 – majority possible
- Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 13 + Maori 4 = 62/122 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour.
Country Direction
- Right 51.5% (-1.5%)
- Wrong 35.0% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.0%)