Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)
Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008
Client: One News
Report: Not found
Party Support
- National 47.0% (nc)
- Labour 35.0% (nc)
- Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 2.4% (-0.6%)
- Maori 1.3% (-1.5%)
- United Future 0%
- ACT 2.5% (-0.4%)
- Progressive 0%
Projected Seats
- National 58
- Labour 43
- Green 12
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 58 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – majority possible
- Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4 = 60/122 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.