Polling Company: Nielsen
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000
Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008
Client: Fairfax Media
Report: Stuff
Party Support
- National 49.0% (-2.0%)
- Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
- Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (nc)
- Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
- United Future 1.0% (nc)
- ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 61
- Labour 39
- Green 10
- NZ First 0
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- ACT 5
- Progressive 1
- Total 121
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
- Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
- Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)