TV3/TNS Poll mid October 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 15 October to 20 October 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 45.1% (+0.1%)
• Labour 37.4% (-1.8%)
• Green 8.8% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 3.5% (+0.8%)
• Maori 2.3% (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• ACT 1.7% (-0.1%)
• Progressive 0.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 47
• Green 11
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 2
• Progressive 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
• National 57 + Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
• Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6  = 65/125 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 33.6% (+2.6%)
• Clark 33.6% (+2.0%)