Polling Company: TNS
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: estimated to be 20 September to 25 September 2008
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
- National 49.0% (+1.0%)
- Labour 36.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 5.0% (-1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (nc)
- Maori 2.0% (nc)
- United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
- ACT 2.0% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 62
- Labour 46
- Green 6
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/125 – majority possible
- Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 60/125 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 34.0% (nc)
- Clark 32.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Ratings
- Clark – 58% (-5%) performing well vs 27% (+5%) performing badly
- Key – 55% (-1%) performing well vs 24% (+4%) performing badly