Polling Company: Nielsen
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,130 total voters, 983 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 11 to 17 August September 2008 (estimated)
Client: Fairfax Media
Party Support
- National 52.0% (-2.0%)
- Labour 34.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 5.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (nc)
- Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 1.0% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 66
- Labour 43
- Green 6
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 1
- Progressive 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 66 = 66/124 – majority possible
- Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 41.0% (-2.0%)
- Clark 30.0 (-1.0%)
- Peters 2.0% (nc)