Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008
July 21, 2008
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters
Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)
Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008
Client: Marae
Candidate Support
The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.