Roy Morgan poll October 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early October to 23 October 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.0% (+6.5%)
• Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
• Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 32
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 55.5% (+3.5%)
• Wrong 29.0% (-6.0%)
• Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)