One News Colmar Brunton poll June 2016

June 8, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 voters of whom 1,245 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 28 May to 2 June 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+1%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (nc)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.4)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.7% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 35
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 15 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/122

On this poll National could govern with NZ First or Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 7% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 12% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (-1%)

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