Roy Morgan poll May 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 870 of whom 822 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early May to 15 May 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 45.5% (+3.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
• Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
• NZ First 9.5% (-3.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 59.0% (+1.5%)
• Wrong 29.0% (-1.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (nc)