Roy Morgan poll October 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early October to 11 October 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+5.5%)
• Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 35
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

• Right 53.0% (-5.0%)
• Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 16.0% (+3.5%)