Archives: July 2014

One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2014

July 29, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 828 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 19 to 23 July 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+1.0%)

 

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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2014

July 26, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 664 had a party preference

Dates: 10 to 17 July 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.9% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 9.9% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.2% (+0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/124 -14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 73.3% (+7.4%)
  • Cunliffe 10.5% (-2.2%)
  • Peters 5.5% (-0.7%)
  • Norman 2.0% (-0.5%)

Fat Tax

  • 55% support a fat tax on sugar-high food
  • 43% oppose

Healthy Star Ratings

  • 82% support introduction

Education

  • 61% want money spent on improving teaching standards
  • 35% on reducing class sizes

School Donations

  • 52% support Labour policy of $100 per student funding if they do not ask for a donation
  • 37% say it is unfair

Cunliffe man apology

  • 42% say was silly and showed poor judgement
  • 45% say unusual way to make point about domestic violence

Auckland Council

  • 43% of Aucklanders want staff and salary cuts for Auckland Council
  • 20% support rates going up more than 2.5%
  • 19% support delaying the City Rail Link
  • 9% support reducing services
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3 News Reid Research poll July 2014

July 26, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 8 to 16 July 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 26.7% (-0.6%)
  • Green 12.4% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.3% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 35
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.8% (-2.9%)
  • Cunliffe 9.5% (-0.1%)

Mana/Internet

  • 59% oppose Labour working with Internet Mana to form a Government
  • 29% support
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Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

July 17, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

  • National 54.8% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
  • Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 1.2% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

  • John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters
  • Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
  • No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

  • Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
  • National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

  • Expect National 32.1%
  • Expect Labour 29.2%
  • Neither 20.2%
  • Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

  • 30% say focus should be public transport
  • 24% say roads
  • 40% say both
  • 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
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Roy Morgan poll early July 2014

July 16, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 774 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-4.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 48/122 – fourteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (nc)
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Class Sizes poll

July 8, 2014

3 News reports:

The Post-Primary Teachers’ Association surveyed 750 people and 83 percent said there should be a maximum of 25 students per class at secondary school, while nearly half said there should be no more than 20.

Full details here.

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Roy Morgan poll late June 2014

July 6, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 817 of whom 772 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 June to 29 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could form a Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First OR Labour could form a Government with both the Maori Party and NZ First (and Greens and NZ First).

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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